Mission one of the Levelling Up White Paper states ‘by 2030, pay, employment and productivity will have risen in every area of the UK, with each containing a globally competitive city, and the gap between the top performing and other areas closing.’
Introduction
Mission one of the Levelling Up White Paper states ‘by 2030, pay, employment and productivity will have risen in every area of the UK, with each containing a globally competitive city, and the gap between the top performing and other areas closing.’ The technical annex accompanying the White Paper provides further detail on how a globally competitive city might be measured. It explains ‘the traditional metric for measuring living standards is GDP per capita, but when looking at sub-national data, this metric can obscure factors, such as commuting flows, that distort the picture’. Instead, the accompanying notes recommend that, to gain a rounded view of a globally competitive city, the following should be measured:
- GVA per filled job
- Services trade balance
- Share of Knowledge Intensive Service sectors
- Percentage of 16-64 year olds with an NVQ4+ qualification
- City density
As a starting point we have examined how cities across the UK compare with the three largest cities of each G7 country using some of the metrics outlined in the technical annex. Where sub-national data on a city level is not available, we have instead looked at how the UK compares with the other countries for each metric. To compare urban data across the world we have used the OECD’s metropolitan areas data.
The Levelling Up White Paper sets out aims to have a globally competitive city in every area of the UK so for this reason we have analysed data for the largest city in every region of England, and the largest cities across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. These are:
- East – Norwich
- East Midlands – Leicester
- North East – Newcastle
- North West – Manchester
- South East – London
- South West – Bristol
- West Midlands – Birmingham
- Yorkshire and the Humber – Leeds
- Northern Ireland – Belfast
- Scotland – Edinburgh
- Wales – Cardiff
City density
City density is described as the number of people per given area. It is affects quality of urban life including the environmental quality, transport systems, physical infrastructure, and social and economic factors.
How UK Cities Compare
Of the largest cities in each region of the UK, London was the city with the fourth highest density with 3,494 people per km2, fewer than Leicester (4,820), Bristol (4,164), and Norwich (3,622). However, London has seen the highest percentage change in city density between 2008 and 2018 with a 13 per cent increase. Both Edinburgh and Leicester saw the same 13 per cent increase over this time period, too. The smallest change in city density seen between 2008 and 2018 was in Belfast where the density only increased by 4 per cent.
How the UK compares with the other G7 countries
There is no comparable data for the whole UK so instead we have calculated the average city density for the three largest cities in all G7 countries.
Between 2008 and 2018, the three largest cities in England saw the second largest increase in density of all G7 countries at 9 per cent. The average city density of the three largest cities in Canada saw the greatest increase in city density at 13 per cent.
The average population density for the three largest cities in England in 2018 was the third lowest of any G7 country at 2,897 people per km2. Only Canada and the United States saw lower averages with 1,905 people per km2 and 838 people per km2 in the three largest cities respectively. Both France and Italy had similar numbers of people per km2 across their three largest cities, almost 1,500 more people than England.
- Average city density
-
A table showing the average city density from UK cities and other G7 countries G7 Country
City
City density (number of people per km2) 2008
City density (number of people per km2) 2018
Percentage change in city density between 2008 and 2018 (%)
UK
Belfast
2,400
2,486
4
Birmingham
2,779
2,992
8
Bristol
3,728
4,164
12
Cardiff
2,360
2,583
9
Edinburgh
1,743
1,971
13
Leeds
1,193
1,269
6
Leicester
4,280
4,820
13
London
3,085
3,494
13
Manchester
2,055
2,206
7
Newcastle
2,008
2,118
5
Norwich
3,286
3,622
10
Three largest English cities average
2,639
2,897
9
Canada
Toronto
1,765
2,015
14
Montreal
1,929
2,104
9
Vancouver
1,353
1,597
18
Three largest cities average
1,682
1,905
13
France
Lyon
4,512
4,945
10
Marseilles
2,964
3,030
2
Paris
4,820
5,023
4
Three largest cities average
4,098
4,319
5
Germany
Berlin
3,318
3,524
6
Hamburg
2,388
2,469
3
Munich
4,238
4,705
11
Three largest cities average
3,314
3,566
7
Italy
Milan
5,507
6,050
10
Naples
5,058
5,036
0
Rome
1,996
2,160
8
Three largest cities average
4,187
4,397
5
Japan
Osaka
3,306
3,339
1
Tokyo
4,503
4,720
5
Yokohama
NA
NA
NA
Three largest cities average
NA
NA
NA
United States
Chicago
847
857
1
Los Angeles
200
213
7
New York
1,395
1,444
4
Three largest cities average
814
838
2
Percentage 16-64 year-olds with a NVQ4+ qualification
An NVQ4+ qualification refers to ‘degree level or above’ which includes degrees (for example BA and BSc), higher degrees (such as MA, PhD or PGCE), BTEC Higher level, and RSA Higher Diplomas. It also encompasses professional qualifications such as teaching, nursing and accountancy. Measuring qualification level is important in understanding labour market access and productivity within a place.
This data for this metric was only available for England and Wales using the LGA’s local area benchmarking tool – LG Inform.
How UK cities compare
Of the largest cities in each region of the UK in 2021, three had over 50 per cent of residents with an NVQ4+ qualification. These were Edinburgh (69 per cent), London (58.9 per cent) and Bristol (56.4 per cent). In comparison, in 2011 no UK city had more than 50 per cent of 16-64 year olds with an NVQ4+ qualification. The city with the lowest per cent of 16-64 year olds with a NVQ4+ qualification in 2011, Birmingham (25.1 per cent) saw the largest increase (60.9 per cent) in the proportion of 16-64 year olds with the qualification in the next ten years to follow. In comparison, there was only a 7.4 per cent increase in 16-64 year olds with a NVQ4+ qualification in Norwich between 2011 and 2021, the lowest of all regions.
- 16-64 year-olds with a NVQ4+ qualification how UK cities
-
A table showing 16-64 year-olds with a NVQ4+ qualification on UK cities Country
City
Percentage of 16-64 year olds with a NVQ4+ qualification 2011
Percentage of 16-64 year olds with a NVQ4+ qualification 2021
Percentage change 16-64 year olds with NVQ4+ qualification 2011-2021 (%)
UK
Belfast
NA
NA
NA
Birmingham
25.1
40.4
60.9
Bristol
41.9
56.4
34.6
Cardiff
38.8
45.0
15.9
Edinburgh
49.9
69.0
38.2
Leeds
33.2
45.8
37.9
Leicester
27.4
35.5
29.5
London
45.3
58.9
30.0
Manchester
38.0
44.9
18.1
Newcastle
32.3
44.0
36.2
Norwich
37.4
40.2
7.4
England (all)
32.5
43.1
32.6
How the UK compares with the other G7 countries
International data available measures the number of 25–64 year-olds nationally who have completed tertiary education (the educational level following the completion of secondary education).
The average per cent of people across the UK in 2019 who have completed tertiary education is 25 per cent higher than the average across Italy (where only 19.6 per cent of 25-64 year olds have been in tertiary education). Between 2016 and 2019, the UK saw the third highest increase in 25-64 year olds in tertiary education of the G7 countries, with a 7.4 per cent increase behind Italy (10.7 per cent) and France (9.8 per cent).
- 25-64 year-olds that have completed tertiary education from the UK and other G7 countries
-
A table comparing 25-64 year-olds that have completed tertiary education from UK and other G7 countries G7 Country
City
Percentage of 25-64 year olds who have been in tertiary education 2016
Percentage of 25-64 year olds who have been in tertiary education 2019
Percentage change 25-64 year olds in tertiary education 2016-2019
UK
41.6
44.7
7.4
London
57.0
59.6
4.5
Canada
57.0
NA
NA
France
34.6
38.0
9.8
Germany
28.3
29.9
5.6
Italy
17.7
19.6
10.7
Japan
NA
NA
NA
United States
42.2
43.6 *data for 2018
NA
GVA per filled job
GVA per filled job apportions GVA to the number of jobs in the subregion. The metric was not available for all G7 countries so instead the GDP per worker was calculated. GDP per worker addresses productivity rather than overall economic well-being.
How UK cities compare
Across the UK, the highest GDP per worker produced was in London at $112,729. Of the largest city in every region, GDP per filled job was lowest in Norwich at only $70,242, almost $20,000 below the UK average of $89,530.
GDP per worker increased four per cent across the UK between 2008 and 2018. This was almost 10 per cent lower than increase of 13 per cent seen in Edinburgh across the same time period. There was no change in labour productivity per worker in Newcastle between 2008 and 2018 and only an increase of one per cent in London, Leeds and Norwich.
How the UK compares with other G7 countries
When analysing GDP per worker across G7 cities, the three largest cities in the United States saw higher levels of labour productivity in comparison to the largest city in every UK region across the whole time period. Similarly, the labour productivity levels were higher in the three largest cities in France compared with the largest city in every region of the UK except for Edinburgh and London.
The largest cities in Canada (Toronto - $88,416), Germany (Berlin - $87,000), Italy (Rome - $99,180) and Japan (Tokyo - $112,651) all had lower levels of GDP per worker compared with London in 2018.
The largest cities in Italy all experienced decreasing levels of labour productivity between 2008 and 2018. Italy was the only G7 country to see this trend. Between 2008 and 2018, the average increase in productivity across Canada (seven per cent) and the United States (12 per cent) was higher than that of the UK (four per cent).
- GVA per filled job
-
A table comparing GVA per filled job from UK cities and other G7 cities G7 Country
City
Labour productivity (GDP per worker in $) 2008
Labour productivity (GDP per worker in $) 2018
Percentage change in GDP per worker 2008-18 (%)
UK
Belfast
73,213
77,847
6
Birmingham
73,420
78,751
7
Bristol
77,576
80,314
4
Cardiff
69,991
78,648
12
Edinburgh
87,044
98,512
13
Leeds
75,059
75,728
1
Leicester
74,798
79,744
7
London
111,189
112,729
1
Manchester
79,324
82,521
4
Newcastle
71,729
72,007
0
Norwich
69,208
70,242
1
UK (all)
86,482
89,530
4
Canada
Toronto
78,566
88,416
13
Montreal
70,743
78,713
11
Vancouver
78,694
89,715
14
Canada (all)
82,901
89,029
7
France
Lyon
100,674
107,075
6
Marseilles
94,653
97,852
3
Paris
125,366
134,673
7
France (all)
NA
101,608
NA
Germany
Berlin
82,583
87,000
5
Hamburg
108,244
104,800
-3
Munich
122,259
124,276
2
Germany (all)
89,147
92,070
3
Italy
Milan
117,260
113,359
-3
Naples
81,218
78,974
-3
Rome
112,215
99,180
-12
Italy (all)
94,901
91,792
-3
Japan
Osaka
NA
97,643 *data for 2016
NA
Tokyo
NA
112,651 *data for 2016
NA
Yokohama
NA
NA
NA
Japan (all)
NA
104,218 *data for 2016
NA
United States
Chicago
125,828 (D)
142,555 (D)
13
Los Angeles
121,312 (D)
134,129 (D)
11
New York
146,921 (D)
181,615 (D)
24
United States (all)
112,524 (D)
125,863 (D)
12
Key Findings
- London is consistently higher than the UK average for every metric, however it has not always seen the highest rate of growth of all UK cities over a given time indicating there is an opportunity for other UK cities to catch up.
- While productivity levels in the UK are lower than the majority of G7 countries, in 2019 the UK had higher levels of employment in knowledge intensive services and 25-64 year-olds in tertiary education compared with the majority of G7 countries.
- There is no clear correlation between the metrics given. A spearman rank correlation found there is a near zero coefficient (0.014) between the density of a city and its productivity across the G7.
- A lack of available data both within the UK and across the G7 means comparisons are limited.
Opportunities for new data
The metrics in the technical annex focus on the labour market and productivity. However, inspired by the future of cities videos and essays, we have explored other ways in which a globally competitive city could be measured.
Inclusive cities
If cities are to become globally competitive, they need to tackle systemic inequality and create equal opportunities for their diverse citizens. The metrics outlined in the technical annex are high-level and output focussed. Data evaluation approaches should be long-lasting and monitor agency, attitudes and behavioural changes rather than just outputs. If a city is to be truly competitive it needs to ensure the benefits of growth are felt across all communities.
As a first step, it might be of interest to analyse the metrics identified in the technical annex on a more granular level, looking at whether there’s different levels of productivity or access to the labour market for groups of people with different protected characteristics:
- Labour force participation UK and G7 Countries
-
A table comparing labour force participation UK and G7 Countries G7 Country
% Labour force participation rate – female 2019
% Labour force participation rate – male 2019
UK
58.7
68.5
Canada
61.3
70.1
France
51.3
59.7
Germany
56.6
67.4
Italy
41.3
59.2
Japan
53.3
71.4
United States
57.4
69.2
Sustainable cities
Cities only cover two per cent of the world’s surface, yet they consume 78 per cent of the world’s energy and produce more than 60 per cent of greenhouse emissions. Decarbonising cities will be fundamental to achieving the UK’s net zero goals by 2050. A globally competitive city might use renewable energy sources, have cleaner production techniques, greater regulations to limit industrial emissions, and have strong transport links.
As a result, a metric used to measure the success of cities in tackling the climate crisis might be levels of air pollution:
- Sustainable cities UK and other G7 Cities
-
A table comparing sustainable cities UK and G7 Countries G7 Country
City
Mean population exposure to PM2.5 air pollution 2019
UK
Belfast
9.9
Birmingham
10.6
Bristol
10.6
Cardiff
10.3
Edinburgh
7
Leeds
10.5
Leicester
11.6
London
12.5
Manchester
10.6
Newcastle
8.5
Norwich
11.8
Canada
Toronto
7.6
Montreal
8.8
Vancouver
7.4
France
Lyon
14.6
Marseilles
15.2
Paris
13.6
Germany
Berlin
15.7
Hamburg
12.2
Munich
12.6
Italy
Milan
24.9
Naples
15.4
Rome
16.5
Japan
Osaka
14.3
Tokyo
14.9
Yokohama
NA
United States
Chicago
9.3
Los Angeles
9.6
New York
7.7
Healthy cities
The Levelling Up White Paper sets targets to improve both health and wellbeing with the health mission stating that ‘by 2030 the gap in Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) between local areas where it is highest and lowest will have narrowed and by 2035 HLE will rise by five years’. Urban areas have a key role to play in making this a reality putting the mental, physical and social health of city residents at the heart of future policy.
As a starting point we have looked at life expectancy broken down by gender:
- Healthy UK cities
-
A table showing Healthy UK cities Country
City
Life expectancy (years) 2008-2010 female
Life expectancy (years) 2008-2010 male
Life expectancy (years) 2018-2020 female
Life expectancy (years) 2018-2020 male
UK
Belfast
80.2
74.8
80.5
75.8
Birmingham
81.5
76.7
81.8
77.1
Bristol
82.1
77.3
82.7
78.5
Cardiff
81.7
77.6
82.8
78.0
Edinburgh
81.4
76.8
82.4
78.2
Leeds
81.7
77.4
81.8
77.8
Leicester
80.4
75.7
81.5
76.8
London
82.9
78.7
84.3
80.3
Manchester
78.8
73.7
79.9
75.5
Newcastle
80.4
76.3
81.6
77.3
Norwich
82.8
77.3
82.8
78.0
English average
82.3
78.4
83.1
79.4